Hunger Overview

Hunger Overview

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According to OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021, http://www.oecd.org/site/oecd-faoagriculturaloutlook/ 

 

India specific observations: 

• Food inflation moderated in 2012 as compared to 2011 in many of the large Asian countries with a strong deceleration in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, often falling by 40% or more. 

• In China and India, crop production is expected to grow by more than 50% between 2000 and 2030 and 10% to 20% between 2030 and 2050.

• A number of African and South Asian countries have experienced significant decreases in food expenditure shares, often from 50%, or more, to approximately 30-35%. In India, the share of household budgets allocated to food expenditures is 35.4 percent in 2012.

• In India the annual population growth rate is expected to decline from 1.46 percent during 2002-2011 to 1.20 percent during 2012-2021.

• Three countries namely China, India and Thailand are expected to expand production and to increase their contributions to world ethanol production by 2-3% each over the outlook period 2012-2021.  

• Strong growth in coarse grains output is anticipated in China, the European Union, Brazil, India, Argentina, Mexico and Canada during 2012-2021. Asian countries will continue to dominate rice production.

• Ethanol production (as biofuel) in India is expected to rise from an average 1976 million litre during 2009-11 to 4194 million litre in 2021.

• Biodiesel production in India is expected to rise from an average 330 million litre during 2009-11 to 1297 million litre in 2021.

• Wheat production in India is anticipated to rise from an average 82470 thousand tonnes during 2009-11 to 88739 thousand tonnes in 2021. 

• Wheat consumption in India is predicted to rise from an average 82249 thousand tonnes during 2009-11 to 91602 thousand tonnes in 2021.

• Coarse grain production in India is expected to rise from an average 39110 thousand tonnes during 2009-11 to 44184 thousand tonnes in 2021.

• Coarse grain consumption in India is predicted to rise from an average 36370 thousand tonnes during 2009-11 to 44822 thousand tonnes in 2021.

• Rice production in India is expected to rise from an average from an average 95807 thousand tonnes during 2009-11 to 118507 thousand tonnes in 2021.

• Rice consumption in India is anticipated to rise from an average 92243 thousand tonnes during 2009-11 to 113176 thousand tonnes in 2021.

• Protein meal production in India is expected to rise from an average 16419 thousand tonnes during 2009-11 to 20343 thousand tonnes in 2021.

• Protein meal consumption in India is estimated to rise from an average 11670 thousand tonnes during 2009-11 to 14149 thousand tonnes in 2021.

• Fish and seafood production in India is expected to rise from an average 8869 thousand tonnes during 2009-11 to 11007 thousand tonnes in 2021.

• Milk production in India is estimated to rise from an average 116815 thousand tonnes during 2009-11 to 165632 thousand tonnes in 2021.

Key projections:

• Agricultural output growth worldwide will slow to an average of 1.7 percent annually over the next 10 years, down from a trend rate of over 2 percent per year in recent decades.

• Global cereals production is expected to grow by 1.1% p.a., on average, to 2021 and down from 2.5% p.a. in the previous decade.

• The FAO estimates that agricultural production will need to increase by 60% globally (and nearly 77% in developing countries) by 2050 to cope with a larger, more urban and wealthier population, and to raise average food consumption to 3070 kcal per person per day.

• Annual agricultural production growth in developing countries is projected to average 1.9% per annum compared to 1.2% per annum in developed countries. 


The Global Monitoring Report 2012: Food Prices, Nutrition, and the Millennium Development Goals, World Bank/ IMF, http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/global
%20monitoring%20report%202012.pdf
  talks about making countries and communities more resilient in the face of food price spikes. It finds how countries reacted to the last two food price spikes of 2007–08 and 2010–11, and how their reaction affected their progress toward the MDGs. It summarizes effects of food prices on several MDGs. It reviews policy responses—including domestic social safety nets, nutritional programs, agricultural policies, regional trade policies, and support by the international community. 

Key findings:

•    In 2011 international food prices spiked for the second time in three years, igniting concerns about a repeat of the 2008 food price crisis and its consequences for the poor. The World Bank Food Price Index rose 184 percent from January 2000 to June 2008.

•    In February 2011 international food prices again reached the 2008 peak, after a sharp decline in 2009, and stayed close to that peak through September. The international food price spike in 2007–08 is estimated to have kept or pushed 105 million people below the poverty line and in the spike of 2010–11, 48.6 million people.

•    As food and fuel prices rose in 2010 and the first half of 2011, consumer prices rose in tandem in many countries. In emerging and developing countries the median inflation rate rose from 4 percent in 2009 to 6 percent in 2011, but experiences were mixed.

•    The additional fiscal cost involved in policy responses to 2006–08 price spike was 19.1 percent of total fiscal revenue in India in 2008.

•    Poverty typically rises initially with higher food prices, because the supply response to higher prices takes time to materialize and many poor (farm) households are net food buyers, so higher food prices lowers their real incomes. Higher prices hurt consumers with high shares of household spending on food, as in much of Africa and Asia.

•    In India, children who were thinner in infancy and experienced rapid growth show a higher prevalence of diabetes, giving it the highest numbers in the world, both of malnourished children and of people with diabetes.

•    In India productivity losses to individuals are estimated at more than 10 percent of lifetime earnings, and GDP loss to undernutrition runs as high as 3–4 percent (World Bank 2009).

•    Even moderate adversity, such as low rainfall during the year of birth, has been associated with reduced child growth and increase child morbidity in India (Maccini and Yang 2009).

•    In South Asia, the $1.25 a day poverty rate fell from 54 percent to 36 percent between 1990 and 2008. The proportion of poor is lower now in South Asia than at any time since 1981.

•    The largest number of poor people remain in South Asia, where 571 million people live on less than $1.25 a day, down from a peak of 641 million in 2002.

•    The FAO estimates that in 2008 there were 739 million people without adequate daily food intake.

•    Globally, the proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day fell from 43.1 percent in 1990 to 22.2 percent in 2008. In 2008 1.28 billion people lived on less than $1.25 a day.

•    Less nutritious diets due to inflation caused malnourishment and made people more susceptible to failing health. A malnourished child has on average a seven-month delay in starting school, a 0.7 grade loss in schooling, and potentially a 10–17 percent reduction in lifetime earnings—damaging future human capital and causing national GDP losses estimated at 2–3 percent. So, malnutrition is not just a result of poverty—it is also a cause.

•    South Asia has reached the target on access to safe water and will probably eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education by 2015.

•    In India 2.4 million adults and children were living with HIV during 2009.

•    Most of the expansion in land cultivation since 2005–06 (24 million of the 27 million increase) is located in only six countries or regions: China, Sub-Saharan Africa, former Soviet Union (Kazakhstan, the Russia Federation, and Ukraine), Argentina, India, and Brazil.

•    Introduction of export restrictions on food exports by Argentina, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine for wheat and China and India for rice, in attempts to decouple domestic markets from global markets to keep domestic food prices low, have in the past compounded the food price problem.

•    India contributes 11 percent of international trade in rice. The most frequent users of protection measures for food over the period were China, India, Indonesia, and the Russian Federation, which together accounted for almost one-third of all trade restrictions introduced on food items since the beginning of the financial crisis.

•    In the recent years, India has improved its market information systems.

•    In South Asia, real official development assistance (ODA) disbursements to Afghanistan increased from $1.6 billion in the 1990s to $27.9 billion in the 2000s, whereas Bangladesh and India experienced a decrease in real ODA disbursements of about 20 percent.



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